Mykolas Romeris University (MRU) Justice LAB member and U.S. Hamline University Political Science Prof. David Schultz attempts to explain former U.S. President Donald Trump’s legal issues in this article. Prof. Schultz notes that former U.S. President Donald Trump is facing many legal problems. Despite these problems, he continues to run for the post of U.S. president with the hope of winning in November 2024. What are these legal problems and how might they impact his campaign for president? The New York City Criminal Case
On April 4th, 2023, former President Donald Trump pled not-guilty in a New York State court to 34 counts of business fraud. He is being charged by a Manhattan (New York City) prosecutor for a violation of New York state law. The claim is that he gave money to his attorney Michael Cohen to help adult film star Stormy Daniels purchase the rights to a newspaper story that would have described a sexual relationship she had with Donald Trump. The story was to appear in 2016 while Trump was running for president.
The specific claim is that Trump falsified his business records to cover up or conceal the payment to Ms. Daniels. Normally business fraud in New York is a misdemeanor, but the claim here is that Trump sought to fraudulently promote his presidential candidacy, which is a violation of New York State law. But when one commits business fraud to conceal another crime, it changes the charge from a misdemeanor to a felony. The 34 charges refer to multiple false payments and bookkeeping entries to hide the payment.
Each instance of fraud carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison. Many U.S. commentators have expressed opinions that the case is weak or unusual. As of now, the evidence has not been disclosed and therefore it is difficult to assess.
Former President Trump’s next court appearance in this case will be in December 2023. Assuming Donald Trump does not eventually plead guilty, or the case is otherwise settled or dismissed, the trial could take place in April or May 2024–in the middle of the U.S. presidential primaries. Other Pending Criminal Cases
No present or former U.S. president has ever been indicted for a crime until the New York case. There are four other criminal investigations involving Donald Trump that could result in other indictments or charges.
A grand jury in Atlanta has already finished its investigation into allegations that Donald Trump tried to illegally interfere with the 2020 presidential election, when he called Georgia election officials and tried to pressure them to change the votes. A decision on what the prosecutor will do in Atlanta is due soon. There are two criminal investigations at the national or federal level. One involves the role Trump had in the riots at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2021. The U.S. House of Representatives issued a report with recommendations that the U.S. Attorney General indict the president with several criminal charges. There is also a special prosecutor looking into whether classified documents found at the ex-president’s residence Mara Lago in Florida violate U.S. law. Decisions on both of these matters are expected soon. Finally, there is a tax fraud case in New York looking at whether Trump falsified business records with his golf course located in Westchester County. A decision here is also pending. How Will it Affect Trump’s Presidential Campaign?
There is a presumption of innocence in U.S. criminal law. Trump’s indictment does not prove guilt or preclude him from running for president. Even if he is found guilty and put in prison, that does not prevent him from running. In 1912 the Socialist Party candidate Eugene Debs was in federal prison convicted of a felony. He was allowed to run for president. The same would be true for Trump if convicted and imprisoned.
But what if he were in prison and won, could he be president?
The intuitive answer is no, but this question is not addressed in the U.S. Constitution or in constitutional law. The U.S. Constitution describes the qualifications to be president and it says nothing about criminal conviction and imprisonment for a felony.
One would hope a convicted felon would be impeached, convicted, and removed from office by the U.S. Congress, but the contemporary state of party polarization in American politics makes one wonder if that would happen.
Finally, right now Trump’s indictment has not hurt him much with his core political supporters. Additional indictments or convictions could alter that. His New York indictment has probably hurt him with undecided voters and it does not seem likely to help him in the 2024 general election.