U.S. Prof. David Schultz, an expert on U.S. elections, is a member of the MRU Justice LAB.

 U.S. President Joseph Biden is running for re-election.  What it portends is the real possibility that the 2024 election will be a rematch between President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump. It is unclear today who the winner will be.  But assuming this is a rematch, the outcome of this election for Lithuania, NATO, the war in Ukraine, and the world in general, is significant.

On the one hand, President Biden’s announcement on Tuesday that he is running for re-election should come as no surprise.  He and his wife have hinted at him running again for months, but now it is official.  He declares now so that he can begin the process of raising money to run for re-election and also to build support for his candidacy, just in case any other members of his party are thinking of running.  In effect, by declaring now he wards off challengers and he can begin the process of rallying party members to support him.

On the other hand, President Biden’s decision to run for a second term is a big surprise.  Four years ago, when he ran, most of us thought he was a one-term transitional president, especially given his age of 77.  He was the compromise candidate of the Democratic Party. Not exciting, but members of his party and independent voters supported him because he was the Anti-Trump.  President Biden was calm, boring, and reliable.  He was someone the American public supported because he could beat Trump. But no one thought he was a two -term president.  Many thought the 2024 candidate would be his Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Yet it has not worked out that way.  Harris has been less than impressive.  She has not won over the base of the Democratic Party and there is a fear she would lose to Donald Trump.  There are also no other clear choices or alternatives to President Biden.  By default, Biden is the choice.

But President Biden is unpopular. Nearly seventy percent of the public does not want him to run again because of his age. If he wins, he will be 82 when sworn in for a second term.  Many see him as a frail and aging president perhaps not up to the task of the presidency. His age, along with his appearance and the economy, render him with only a forty percent approval rating–about the same as what Trump had at this stage in his presidency in 2019.

President Biden is vulnerable.  He could lose.  Since Trump’s indictment in New York, his support within the Republican Party has strengthened.  While more indictments are possible and things can change, Trump has a strong grip on the base of his party and it is hard to see how he does not win his party’s nomination.

Yet 60% percent of the American public does not want to see a Trump-Biden rematch.  It is about the fact that both are old (Trump is 78) and divisive.  Yet given the U.S. election system and the electoral college, either of them could win.  

The best thing Biden has going for him is hatred for Trump.  However, Trump will mobilize voters.  Additionally, with Republicans controlling the U.S, House of Representatives, President Biden can run against them.  President Biden should win the popular vote–not because voters like him, but simply because so many dislike Trump.

What most people do not realize is in fact that President Biden has accomplished a lot. He secured passage of a COVID relief bill, an infrastructure bill, and his Inflation Reduction Act provides hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars for clean energy and to fight climate change.

But for Lithuania, Ukraine, and Europe, President Biden’s biggest accomplishment is strengthening ties both diplomatically and militarily.  While Biden has been slow to come to Ukraine’s defense, he has come to its defense.  It is doubtful Trump will.  President Biden believes in NATO, Trump does not.  President Biden believes Ukraine is Europe and part of our vital interests.  Trump does not.  President Biden sees Putin’s Russia as a threat.  Trump does not.  President Biden may not see Europe the way Lithuania or Europeans do, but he is better than Trump.

Trump is still the number one issue on voters minds going into 2024.  But the economy, abortion rights, and perhaps Ukraine are the second tier issues.  They will help decide who wins in 2024.  The choice for America and the world appears stark next year.  We shall see over the next few months how it plays out.