David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University, visiting lecturer at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU) and member of the MRU LAB Justice Research Laboratory.
Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election should not have come as a surprise. It was a product of longer- and shorter-term factors in American domestic politics. But nonetheless, his victory raises important questions about the future of the United States, democracy, and European security.
Longer term, Donald Trump's victory is the product of more than 25 years of economic and cultural frustration among white working-class individuals without a college education. These individuals have lost out on the economic restructuring of the United States that saw the exiting of manufacturing and the rise of the Internet economy. These are individuals who once could do well economically without an advanced education, only to see their fortunes and luck become frustrated. These individuals also experienced a world of cultural change and a perceived threat to values that they grew up with. Trump spoke to these concerns in ways that Democrats and mainstream Republicans did not. In many ways Trump’s nationalistic rhetoric echoes that seen across Europe this year, especially during the continent’s EU parliamentary elections.
More immediately, two years ago, when the US presidential race looked like it was going to be Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, they were close in the national polls and in the critical seven swing states that would decide the election. But across the board, Trump had an ever so slight lead. Polls indicated an American electorate frustrated with the status quo, upset by the price of goods such as milk, bread and eggs. More than seventy percent thought the country was moving in the wrong direction.
Even at the start of this year, Trump and Biden were in that place in the polls. After Kamala Harris replaced Biden, nothing dramatically shifted in public opinion. All this speaks to the polarization of American politics.
Trump won a close but decisive victory. Close in that had Harris picked up a little bit more than 200,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin she would have won an electoral college victory. Trump and the Republicans won every close race, oftentimes by very small margins. Many groups, including the working class, suburban women, and college educated individuals moved from the Democrats to Trump and Republicans. It was, as political scientists call it, a realigning election.
What now? Unlike four years ago, the country seems less divided, and there is no Talk of stolen elections. That may be good news. As of this writing, the US House of Representatives has yet to be determined, meaning it is still not clear how much support Trump will have for his policies. Trump's focus will be on domestic issues, no doubt, dealing with the economy and making permanent tax cuts from his first administration.
The real questions come now in terms of European security and democracy.
In the same way that Trump initially followed through on Obama's call for a pivot to the east with a focus on China, Biden continue that policy started by Trump and expects a second term for the Trump presidency to put most of his focus on China as its main adversary. This, of course, means that the focus may not be on Europe and European security, and already there are concerns that he may abandon Ukraine or NATO. But the world and the foreign policy that a second Trump administration is inheriting is different from the first one. Then there was no war in Ukraine. It is now evident that China, North Korea, and Iran have teamed up with the Russian Federation in the battle against Ukraine. Because of Trump's hatred for Iran, China, and North Korea, he may look at Ukraine differently. He is also locked into many policies that Biden started and abandoning Ukraine would make Trump look weak and add to concerns that after Biden had left Afghanistan, that the US is less of a player on the global stage.
The other concern is about democracy. Without the United States opposing autocrats and defending democracy and human rights across the world, does that make democracy more fragile and lead to a further democratic backsliding across Europe and the rest of the world. We do not know yet. It is possible that Trump may find that working with European allies is more beneficial this time than the previous time, especially as the European conflict and security issues have taken on this global significance with China and Iran and North Korea involved. The task for European governments such as Lithuania is to frame European and Ukrainian security and democracy as a battle against China and Iran.
Overall, the Trump victory puts the spotlight again on the US and how dependent European security and democracy has been on America. Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 sidelined talk of a Europe without America, it is time again to think about this possibility.